Eye on Mobile World Congress 2009

Teleca's VP Solutions Management Andrew Till discusses trends and impressions from the Mobile World Congress. 

This year’s Mobile World Congress was a very interesting event on many levels. While the event was certainly quieter (around 45,000 versus 60,000 in previous years) it was no less impactful on shaping the future direction of the industry. In many ways the show moved back towards its feel of 5-10 years ago when people came to talk business rather than see the latest gadgets. It was very much a show about the big “C”s of consolidation and convergence with much of the behind closed doors conversation focusing on who would be turning up next year and with several new entities making their first appearances (STEricsson, Symbian Foundation). On the convergence front there was the looming battle for space between traditional mobile phones and PCs while it was also clear that the traditional Internet companies are now viewing mobile as a core part of their future growth strategy. So let’s take a look in more detail at some of the trends and themes emerging from this year’s show.

The race is on in open OS

Before the show started we made several predications about the key trends we expected to see. One prediction was that the world would become more open. While we may not have seen too many Android handsets being announced it was certainly a central theme of discussion on the show floor. If the corridor conversations are correct then we can expect to see a lot of Android products arriving in 4Q09 and early 2010 as handset vendors seek to leverage the platform and at the same time take advantage of the association with Google. A key issue and I would speculate a driver behind the lack of formal announcements is how to bring true differentiation to Android based devices (and yes I say devices on purpose but more on that in a moment). Do you add new applications, but run the risk that someone in the community will suddenly contribute this to the baseline, great new UI flows, focus on E2E services or align with operator needs and address their requirements? These seem to be the critical issues that are keeping people awake at night.

Now back to my comment on devices. It seems that we can also expect to see Android appearing in devices outside of handsets with a range of consumer electronics devices being planned to utilise the platform.  One such example is the recently announced Internet Tablet from Archos which will be based on the TI OMAP 3 platform. With a 5 inch display, DivX support, 500MB storage and 7 hours of video playback it’s certainly a contender for my Christmas list this year.

But what about the here and now and how open is it? Well the Symbian foundation has started to put momentum behind its marketing machine and also pointed to the announcements of 3 key handsets at the show. The SonyEricsson Idou with a 12MP camera has clearly upped the stakes in the megapixel war. The Samsung Omnia HD delivers stunning audio and video performance using the S60 V5.0 platform and Nokia’s N86 8MP camera phone puts it firmly back in the megapixel fight. With the N86 and Omnia HD due out in 2Q09 the Symbian Foundation looks to be starting the year with a strong line-up of flagship handsets. And of course lets not forget Palm who were the recipients of lavish praise for the Pre at the show (though they seemed to be somewhat over protective when it came to letting you get hands-on) and Microsoft’s re-branding of Windows Mobile to “Windows® phones” and the official announcement of Windows Mobile 6.5 and Windows MarketPlace Services which will be bundled with all Windows Phones based on 6.5. LG also appeared to pick up the standard for Windows following the decline of Motorola. LG used MWC to announce that it will launch 50 (yes that is FIFTY) models using the platform by the end of 2012.

But enough about smartphone platforms what else was happening at the show?

The evolving silicon landscape

There is a shakedown taking place in the baseband market with the high levels of investments needed to drive innovation and deliver the latest radio standards, many players appear to be reducing their portfolios or heading for safer ground in the applications processor space. Simply walking the floor and seeing the key messages being promoted on the stands of the different silicon vendors.

As a result the battleground for leadership in the application processor market is heating up (not literally) and this is driving prices down and speed up to dizzying heights. Expect 1GHz to become widely available with 2-3 on the horizon and YES I am talking about mobile phones not PCs. And if what TI were showing on their booth is a good guide from the industry then expect 3D displays to be something we can expect to see in the next couple of years. But will the average consumer need this wealth of power in the palm of their handset? Well as memory continues to fall in price and more devices are launched with 8, 16, 32 GB of storage then yes, we clearly will need more power to process all the data that consumers will store, download, share and blog from their mobile device.

This leads us nicely to the theme of convergence.

Convergence convergence everywhere

There is an interesting conflict looming between the “Netbook” driven by the traditional PC vendors and the Mobile Internet Device (MID) championed by the more traditional mobile phone and consumer electronics vendors. What’s the difference? About 4-5 inches in display size, keyboard and possibility DVD drives that Netbooks will have that MIDs will not. On the other hand MIDs will be inherently more portable. It’s clear that PC vendors are looking to make another push towards the mobile market and view this as a key entry strategy. Who will win in this space is hard to predict and will ultimately be defined by the trade-offs that consumers are willing to make.

Another aspect of convergence was the presence of the traditional Internet players at the show. While not all had large stands they were certainly out in force to assess the latest mobile trends and to look at how to drive greater update of consumers to their mobile offerings. Yahoo announced the latest update to its mobile strategy re-naming its GO! client and outlining the benefits of its Blueprint strategy for developers. As mentioned, Microsoft announced a new set of services for mobile devices designed to make discovering and installing content and device management a lot easier for the mobile user. There was also a strong representation from the social networking companies, a few with stands, seeking to drive improved user experiences and broaden their distribution reach in the market. It’s not surprising that social networking companies are now taking mobile very seriously with Facebook recently announcing that they added over 10M mobile users in 2008 and currently have 25M total mobile users each month. These developments, combined with the strong growth in application and content download, largely driven by iPhone, is making web services companies take mobility more seriously than they have done in previous years.

So in summary, a quieter show but a more focused show. A show full of paradoxes and change but also with clear signs that despite the global economic downturn there is no slowdown in innovation or competitive intensity within the mobile world. An event that made a clear statement that while the world may have its troubles and the leading players are changing, in handsets, chipsets, OS platforms there is at least one constant and that is that the show most definitely will go on.